南美足联主席：为庆祝世界杯百年，2030年世界杯应扩军至64队（南美足联主席提议：为纪念百年，2030年世界杯扩军至64支球队）

发布日期：2026-01-16

Considering user request in Chinese

I see the user shared a headline in Chinese about the CONMEBOL president suggesting that the 2030 World Cup should expand to 64 teams to celebrate its centenary. They might just be sharing information or might be looking for a summary, commentary, context, or verification. Since they posted a headline, I can ask a clarifying question to gauge what they need: “Do you want a summary, context, verification, or something else?” This will help me provide a more tailored response!Clarifying World Cup expansion context
I should provide some context regarding the World Cup expansion. As of my last update in October 2024, FIFA has set the 2026 World Cup to expand to 48 teams, and for 2030, the tournament will host matches across Spain, Portugal, and Morocco, with some centenary matches in South America. The idea of expanding to 64 teams hasn't been confirmed and would pose logistical challenges, such as scheduling and player workload. A typical 64-team format would involve 16 groups, resulting in around 128 matches!Calculating potential matches for a 64-team World Cup
Okay, so for the group stage in a 64-team World Cup, with 4 teams per group playing round-robin, there would be 6 matches per group. So that's 16 groups x 6 matches, giving us 96 group matches. Then, for the knockout stage, if 32 teams advance, it leads to 32 knockout matches—this includes the rounds from 32 teams all the way to the final. That brings the total to 96 plus 32, resulting in 128 matches overall!Comparing formats for World Cups
Let’s compare the upcoming 2026 World Cup format. As of 2023, it includes 12 groups of 4 teams, totaling 48 teams and resulting in 72 group matches. The knockout stage involves 32 teams, adding another 32 matches for a total of 104 matches. In contrast, a 64-team format would lead to 128 matches, which is 24 more. Additionally, expanding the tournament could mean extending the tournament days and possibly increasing the number of host cities beyond 16. It's worth noting the 2030 hosts are Spain, Portugal, and Morocco, which complicates stadium logistics.Evaluating potential World Cup expansion impacts
The major concern is that FIFA awarded the hosting rights for the 2030 World Cup to Spain, Portugal, and Morocco, and expanding to a 64-team tournament would be complicated. Renegotiating this would be challenging, especially regarding qualifying slots. Currently, six South American teams are set to qualify automatically, but expansion could potentially allow for more slots. However, this would also complicate scheduling across three countries and two continents. So, as of now, the plan remains set for 48 teams in 2030, not 64.


这是个有意思的说法。我先给你三个关键信息，便于判断可行性：

官方现状：截至我所知（2024-10），FIFA 已确定世界杯从 2026 起扩军至 48 队；2030 年主办方为西班牙/葡萄牙/摩洛哥（正式比赛），并在乌拉圭/阿根廷/巴拉圭各办一场百年纪念赛。2030 扩至 64 队并非既定方案。任何变更需 FIFA 理事会决议，且时间点已很晚。
规模与赛程影响：64 队若采用“16 组×4 队”的常规分组，大约会有 96 场小组赛+32 场淘汰赛=128 场比赛（相比 48 队的约 104 场，多出约 24 场）。这意味着赛期更长、场馆与城市更多、转播与安保成本提升，对已基本定型的多国承办架构是大挑战。
利益与阻力：对南美而言名额可能从现行的 6 个向上增加（粗略按比例约至 8 左右），商业收入也更高；但球员负荷、国际比赛日历（2025 年扩军世俱杯等）、跨两洲六国的后勤复杂度，都是现实阻力。

需要我帮你：

快速查证这条消息的原始来源与可信度；
评估若真扩到 64 队，各大洲名额可能怎么分配和赛程会如何调整；
梳理对主办国、赞助商、转播商、球员与联赛的利弊清单。